← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hourglass | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 81% (7716–1806, n=9522) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $136K | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #957 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (74 of 97 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Golf −1 pts, n=66 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 11836 at avg 86¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 5% of 939) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 37% of 353) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 524) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 85% (won 97% of 10020) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Hourglass | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $13 | — | Yes $21K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | — | Yes $169K |