Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
LucerysRN1CORGII0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)81% (6822–1586, n=8408)47% (13870–15347, n=29217)61% (395–248, n=643)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$285K$14.8M$194K-$6.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #17PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #68was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus89% (117 of 131 open)57% (13 of 23 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicElections −2 pts, n=533——College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won46% of 3951 at avg 45¢, ROI −1%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢48% (won 4% of 1882)10% (won 57% of 2537)9% (won 92% of 36)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢6% (won 48% of 256)22% (won 94% of 5518)56% (won 99% of 223)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢9% (won 69% of 366)36% (won 99% of 8928)33% (won 100% of 133)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up37% (won 94% of 1447)32% (won 100% of 7821)2% (won 100% of 7)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.