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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| NiceDuckBro | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (172–91, n=263) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$7.3K | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (7 of 10 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −7 pts, n=19 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 67% of 342 at avg 66¢, ROI −1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 2% of 43) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 13% (won 33% of 45) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 69% of 67) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 55% (won 89% of 187) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | NiceDuckBro | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $74 | No $22K | — |