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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PROBABILITYTRADER | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | joseph00677 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (974–1212, n=2186) | 61% (495–321, n=816) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) |
| Consensus PnL | -$161K | -$352K | $5.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #666 | was PM monthly #51 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 80% (12 of 15 open) | no open consensus position | 54% (30 of 56 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NBA −3 pts, n=120 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2442 at avg 40¢, ROI +3% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 22% (won 14% of 528) | 15% (won 29% of 125) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 51% (won 47% of 1238) | 34% (won 58% of 283) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 27% (won 70% of 671) | 43% (won 69% of 354) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 100% of 5) | 7% (won 80% of 60) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PROBABILITYTRADER | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | joseph00677 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $2.6K | — | Under $129 |