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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SecondWindCapital | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 28% (8–21, n=29) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | -$491K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #515 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (5 of 7 open) | 63% (20 of 32 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 86% of 28 at avg 56¢, ROI +34% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 83% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 100% of 4) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 75% of 8) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 90% of 10) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SecondWindCapital | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $13K | — | Yes $272K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K | — |