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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SpringlyFawl | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 27% (1788–4902, n=6690) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13870–15347, n=29217) | 61% (495–321, n=816) |
| Consensus PnL | $29K | $11.0M | $14.8M | -$352K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #119 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (18 of 30 open) | 86% (134 of 156 open) | 57% (12 of 21 open) | 75% (6 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Economy −12 pts, n=119 | — | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 21% of 2264 at avg 25¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 70% (won 2% of 1586) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 40% of 141) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 57% of 230) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 85% of 307) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SpringlyFawl | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | No $139 | — | — |