Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Zzzz870xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Record (consensus markets)49% (2796–2863, n=5659)61% (495–320, n=815)45% (542–652, n=1194)50% (10–10, n=20)
Consensus PnL$1.1M$4.8M$10.6M$5.3M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #159was PM monthly #51PM monthly #1PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensus61% (27 of 44 open)64% (7 of 11 open)90% (149 of 165 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicMLB ±0 pts, n=438Soccer ±0 pts, n=115——
Settled positions, side won50% of 5302 at avg 49¢, ROI +3%60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢27% (won 12% of 1416)15% (won 29% of 125)10% (won 82% of 56)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢21% (won 45% of 1100)34% (won 58% of 283)36% (won 98% of 198)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢31% (won 63% of 1633)43% (won 69% of 354)35% (won 99% of 191)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up22% (won 84% of 1153)7% (won 80% of 60)19% (won 100% of 107)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketZzzz870xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816BreakTheBankjoseph00677
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $202—Yes $274K—
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $311—Yes $15K—
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $489—No $407K—
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.7K—Yes $280K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $769—Yes $14K—