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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| a8999 | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (1092–1387, n=2479) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 47% (13923–15417, n=29340) |
| Consensus PnL | -$207K | $11.1M | $5.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #939 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 79% (133 of 168 open) | no open consensus position | 51% (27 of 53 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 2016 at avg 45¢, ROI +6% | 97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 22% of 341) | 10% (won 79% of 58) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 38% (won 49% of 771) | 36% (won 98% of 200) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 41% (won 61% of 828) | 35% (won 99% of 194) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 4% (won 80% of 76) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | a8999 | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | — | Grizzlies $11K | — | Pelicans $129 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | — | Grizzlies $782 | — | Pelicans $485 |