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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ameisgoat11BreakTheBankCORGII
Record (consensus markets)53% (5430–4794, n=10224)45% (526–640, n=1166)62% (393–245, n=638)
Consensus PnL$78K$10.6M$4.5M
Tracked asPM monthly #943PM monthly #1PM monthly #68
Sides with the consensus57% (33 of 58 open)73% (72 of 98 open)25% (1 of 4 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won56% of 249 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%
Entries under 30¢19% (won 6% of 47)10% (won 85% of 53)9% (won 92% of 36)
Entries 30–50¢23% (won 33% of 58)36% (won 98% of 192)56% (won 99% of 223)
Entries 50–70¢26% (won 67% of 64)35% (won 99% of 187)33% (won 100% of 133)
Entries 70¢ and up32% (won 93% of 80)20% (won 100% of 107)2% (won 100% of 7)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketameisgoat11BreakTheBankCORGII
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Celtics $3Magic $51K—
Celtics vs. Magic
opposite sides · consensus Celtics
Celtics $14Magic $24K—
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Celtics $2Magic $13K—