Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
	cigarettes	RN1	0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	joseph00677
Record (consensus markets)	49% (10101–10684, n=20785)	47% (13860–15343, n=29203)	46% (131–154, n=285)	50% (10–10, n=20)
Consensus PnL	$631K	$13.4M	$19.0M	$5.3M
Tracked as	PM monthly #38	PM monthly #24 + pinned	was PM monthly #715	PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensus	68% (292 of 430 open)	75% (3 of 4 open)	no open consensus position	no open consensus position
Strongest topics	NHL +2 pts n=166, ROI −1% Geopolitics +5 pts n=43, ROI −3% Finance +3 pts n=41, ROI −6%	College Football +44 pts n=767, ROI +41% MLB +41 pts n=3174, ROI +40% NFL +40 pts n=651, ROI +37%	NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%	Soccer +22 pts n=11, ROI +33%
Weakest topic	Esports −5 pts, n=274	—	College Basketball −12 pts, n=174	—
Settled positions, side won	42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3%	94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%	49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%	59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢	49% (won 5% of 3769)	10% (won 57% of 2537)	0% (won 17% of 6)	12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢	10% (won 33% of 745)	22% (won 94% of 5518)	42% (won 46% of 565)	6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢	9% (won 64% of 707)	36% (won 99% of 8928)	57% (won 51% of 766)	65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up	32% (won 95% of 2483)	32% (won 100% of 7821)	0% (won 100% of 4)	18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market	cigarettes	RN1	0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188	joseph00677
Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud same side · consensus Isabella Shinikova	Dune Vaissaud $13	Dune Vaissaud $273	—	—