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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| elmcap2 | CORGII | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (1222–161, n=1383) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $4.5M | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #87 + pinned | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 99% (72 of 73 open) | 0% (0 of 4 open) | 72% (75 of 104 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=247 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 1881 at avg 90¢, ROI +1% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 11) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 33% of 81) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 61% of 179) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 86% (won 97% of 1610) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | elmcap2 | CORGII | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $945K | — | No $184K | — |