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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| ferdinand2 | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (647–656, n=1303) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 46% (131–154, n=285) |
| Consensus PnL | $63K | $13.4M | $19.0M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #491 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #715 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (38 of 63 open) | 67% (4 of 6 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=419 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 554 at avg 52¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 24% (won 5% of 131) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 39% of 132) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 42% (won 46% of 565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 23% (won 64% of 130) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 57% (won 51% of 766) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 29% (won 88% of 161) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% (won 100% of 4) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ferdinand2 | RN1 | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bratislava 2: Lucas Poullain vs Yannik Kelm opposite sides · consensus Lucas Poullain | Lucas Poullain $6 | Yannik Kelm $3 | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata same side · consensus Rinky Hijikata | Rinky Hijikata $15 | Rinky Hijikata $41K | — |
| Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana same side · consensus Mary Stoiana | Mary Stoiana $19 | Mary Stoiana $10K | — |
| Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Kumstat same side · consensus Jan Kumstat | Jan Kumstat $8 | Jan Kumstat $9.7K | — |
| Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker same side · consensus Niels Visker | Michal Krajci $6 | Michal Krajci $270 | — |