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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
forecastication4BreakTheBank00gringo00primm
Record (consensus markets)50% (1140–1154, n=2294)45% (526–640, n=1166)75% (6–2, n=8)50% (941–941, n=1882)
Consensus PnL$106K$10.6M$3.5M$3.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #321PM monthly #1was PM monthly #19PM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus46% (6 of 13 open)72% (73 of 102 open)no open consensus position70% (14 of 20 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won99% of 805 at avg 56¢, ROI +45%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 91% of 35)10% (won 85% of 53)0%5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢39% (won 99% of 312)36% (won 98% of 192)0%41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢34% (won 100% of 271)35% (won 99% of 187)100% (won 86% of 7)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up23% (won 100% of 187)20% (won 100% of 107)0%5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketforecastication4BreakTheBank00gringo00primm
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
same side · consensus Cowboys
Cardinals $1.3KCardinals $3.0K—Cardinals $1.1K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
—Bills $51K—Ravens $696
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
—Bills $2.1K—Ravens $376