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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Ravens — but Bills won instead.

Spread: Bills (-2.5)

Resolved Bills. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Ravens. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Ravens 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills100%

Ravens0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,783

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Ravens5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,736

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Bills — 44%Ravens — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Billsavg 56¢	$2.1K	$3.7K	+$1.6K	43% 561-738 (1299)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 43¢	$2.9K	—	$-2.9K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Billsavg 57¢	$589.65	$1.0K	+$444.83	51% 144-139 (283)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Ravensavg 36¢	$666.36	—	-$666.36	46% 367-427 (794)
PR primmCTR	Ravensavg 34¢	$399.84	—	-$399.84	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Ravensavg 17.7¢	$124.58	$31	-$93.58	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 17.7¢	$96.68	—	-$96.68
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 90¢	$27.9	$31	+$3.1
AN Anon455<$100	Billsavg 59¢	$35.47	$60.12	+$24.65	55% 3029-2464 (5493)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 82¢	$10.45	$12.74	+$2.29	56% 14308-11101 (25409)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Ravensavg 40.9¢	$26.65	—	-$26.65	59% 47089-33330 (80419)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Ravensavg 39¢	$15.27	—	+$6.43	48% 9059-9756 (18815)

Invested

$2,058.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

Invested

$2,859.23

Value

—

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Invested

$589.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$444.83

Record

51%

144-139 (283)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Invested

$666.36

Value

—

PnL

-$666.36

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

Invested

$399.84

Value

—

PnL

-$399.84

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Invested

$124.58

Value

$31

PnL

-$93.58

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Ravens$96.6817.7¢-$96.68

Bills$27.990¢+$3.1

Invested

$35.47

Value

$60.12

PnL

+$24.65

Record

55%

3029-2464 (5493)

Invested

$10.45

Value

$12.74

PnL

+$2.29

Record

56%

14308-11101 (25409)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$26.65

Value

—

PnL

-$26.65

Record

59%

47089-33330 (80419)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$15.27

Value

—

PnL

+$6.43

Record

48%

9059-9756 (18815)

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5b67bdd5...da729e

Slug

nfl-bal-buf-2026-11-01-spread-home-2pt5

Traders in this Market

BreakTheBank

Bills — $3.7K

takeormake

Ravens — $0

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Bills — $1.0K

SunflowaRebuildYear

Ravens — $0

primm

Ravens — $0

justaluckydude

Arbitrage — excluded

Anon455

Bills — $60.12

ghorrock

Bills — $12.74

UpTheBlues

Ravens — $0

topdogbigboi

Ravens — $0

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