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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| gaven-willwin | BreakTheBank | RN1 | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (17–9, n=26) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13858–15341, n=29199) | 54% (225–189, n=414) |
| Consensus PnL | -$134K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $9.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #172 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (4 of 5 open) | 91% (148 of 163 open) | 67% (2 of 3 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| not computed yet | |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 27 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 0% of 1) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 22% (won 50% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 74% (won 100% of 20) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | gaven-willwin | BreakTheBank | RN1 | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $95K | No $202K | — | — |