← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (355–490, n=845) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | -$6.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #80 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (49 of 95 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 843 at avg 38¢, ROI +2% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 7% of 403) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 38% of 138) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 69% of 125) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 177) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $620 | — | Yes $127K |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $17K | — | No $300 |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | — | Yes $315K |