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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | SaylorMoon | Sisyphus- | Wiretransferxyz | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (149–134, n=283) | no settled market | 96% (454–18, n=472) | 59% (296–204, n=500) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.1M | — | $648K | $899K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #108 | PM monthly #610 | PM monthly #314 | PM monthly #227 |
| Sides with the consensus | 63% (39 of 62 open) | 38% (3 of 8 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | Finance −17 pts, n=11 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 49% of 276 at avg 45¢, ROI +2% | — | 98% of 463 at avg 58¢, ROI +39% | 59% of 495 at avg 53¢, ROI +8% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 34% (won 9% of 93) | — | 4% (won 82% of 17) | 6% (won 17% of 29) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 48% of 64) | — | 24% (won 97% of 112) | 35% (won 46% of 171) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 67% of 54) | — | 48% (won 99% of 224) | 47% (won 66% of 233) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 92% of 65) | — | 24% (won 100% of 110) | 13% (won 89% of 62) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | SaylorMoon | Sisyphus- | Wiretransferxyz |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9.9K | Yes $20K | — | — |