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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lightningbolts | ndb1 | primm | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (442–307, n=749) | 63% (1096–631, n=1727) | 50% (1248–1261, n=2509) | 48% (17938–19366, n=37304) |
| Consensus PnL | $92K | $4.6M | $3.6M | $14.9M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #565 | PM monthly #113 | PM monthly #48 | PM monthly #32 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 73% (73 of 100 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 56% (25 of 45 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 299 at avg 60¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 100% of 10) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2594) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 21% (won 100% of 64) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 41% (won 99% of 421) | 22% (won 94% of 5704) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 45% (won 100% of 136) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 49% (won 99% of 508) | 35% (won 99% of 9204) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 100% of 89) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 5% (won 100% of 47) | 33% (won 100% of 8622) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lightningbolts | ndb1 | primm | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Packers (-16.5) same side · consensus Packers | — | — | Packers $5.4K | Packers $3.9K |