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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lug | ndb1 | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (1905–1563, n=3468) | 66% (875–459, n=1334) | 47% (14288–15920, n=30208) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $98K | $4.1M | $14.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #876 | PM monthly #26 | PM monthly #18 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (27 of 34 open) | 70% (30 of 43 open) | 56% (20 of 36 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=166 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 3694 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 16% of 362) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 32% (won 46% of 1195) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 39% (won 57% of 1426) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 84% of 711) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lug | ndb1 | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6.6K | No $73K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $542 | Yes $2.9M | — | — |