Consensus PnL $67K · win rate 54% (1854–1561, n=3415) · was PM monthly #876 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$66.9K
Record
1854W / 1561L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 3415 settled
Batting Avg
43.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1554
Source
PM monthly #876
Record (90 d)
172/332 · 52%
Trades
1,979
Markets
3,862
Volume
$17.2M
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 31 on the consensus side (81%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $18K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (82% of 135)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $12K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (49% of 47)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $9.0K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (54% of 26)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $6.3K · now 79¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (52% of 45)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $6.2K · now 73¢with the consensus (75% of 105)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $5.9K · now 80¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (52% of 69)
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?No $4.7K · now 69¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $4.5K · now 76¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (72% of 113)
Specialties
3,622 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 57% of 267 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +2%
- Culture
+5 pts
side won 24% of 37 · avg entry 19¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 68% of 78 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 48% of 166 at an average 51¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 15% of 357)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 45% of 1182)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 56% of 1397)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 84% of 686)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.