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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| timetowander | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 38% (360–592, n=952) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $183K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #892 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 33% (3 of 9 open) | 71% (15 of 21 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Economy −7 pts, n=15 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 507 at avg 31¢, ROI −6% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 53% (won 21% of 268) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 21% (won 82% of 104) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 83% of 78) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 91% of 57) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | timetowander | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $174K | — | Yes $1.1K | — |