Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 70¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 70.2¢

+90% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,023

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No4 traders

Total Value$279.99

Total Shares834

Combined PnL-$164.49

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

216h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HerrieDavis	Yesavg 36.5¢	$432.33	$2.1K	+$1.7K	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Yes	$910.52	$910.52	+$0	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
DA dancingmonkey1	Yesavg 38.3¢	$391.53	$643.69	+$249.1	54% 1253-1088 (2341)
RO rocky42019CTR	Noavg 71.9¢	$224.61	$130.21	-$94.4	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$34.36	$80.01	+$44.41	50% 356-357 (713)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yes	$64.94	$64.94	+$68.2	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Noavg 65.2¢	$111.61	$64	-$47.6	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 59.2¢	$1.3K	$47.2	-$22.62	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$38.25	$38.58	+$0.13	65% 526-281 (807)
4751346<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$10.8	$18.37	+$6.72	72% 1257-483 (1740)
MA Maki777<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$7.17	$10.14	+$2.97	38% 9-15 (24)
NY NyetRisk<$100	Yes	$4.98	$4.98	+$0	7% 14-187 (201)
probability<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$0.73	$4.41	+$3.68	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

HerrieDavis

Yes

Invested

$432.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

BikesAreTheBikes

Yes

Invested

$910.52

Value

$910.52

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

dancingmonkey1

Yes

Invested

$391.53

Value

$643.69

PnL

+$249.1

Record

54%

1253-1088 (2341)

rocky42019CTR

Invested

$224.61

Value

$130.21

PnL

-$94.4

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.36

Value

$80.01

PnL

+$44.41

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.94

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$68.2

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Invested

$111.61

Value

$64

PnL

-$47.6

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$1,283.61

Value

$47.2

PnL

-$22.62

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$38.25

Value

$38.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

4751346<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$6.72

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Maki777<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.17

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$2.97

Record

38%

9-15 (24)

NyetRisk<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0

Record

14-187 (201)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$3.68

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

216h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.