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4C
Consensus PnL $472K · win rate 63% (32–19, n=51) · PM monthly #143 · holds 9 consensus positions
0x4c8cdcdd...e14de36fPolymarket
🐋Whale🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$472.2K
Record
32W / 19L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 51 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1041
Source
PM monthly #143
Trades
118
Markets
76
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 9 on the consensus side (78%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $83K · now 70¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $36K · now 71¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $27K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes $3.9K · now 51¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 33¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $1.8K · now 56¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $589 · now 68¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $131 · now 14¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
34 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 60¢- Elections
+38 pts
side won 96% of 26 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +27%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 100% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 100% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 93% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.