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5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$1.28

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 95¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$915.71

Total Shares974

Combined PnL+$105.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$126.32

Total Shares2,105

Combined PnL-$103.85

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 92¢	$549.68	$561.63	+$17.92	72% 257-102 (359)
FA fastviking	Noavg 73¢	$208.54	$268.53	+$59.99	69% 33-15 (48)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$30.96	$70.48	+$39.53	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
MEPP<$100	Noavg 55¢	$36.48	$62.34	+$26.2	64% 633-352 (985)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$82.72	$26.17	-$56.55	57% 766-585 (1351)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$94.5	$21.45	-$73.05	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$18.3	$18.8	+$0.5	72% 484-187 (671)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$21.99	$8.22	-$13.77	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 83¢	$3.89	$4.4	+$0.52	72% 1535-585 (2120)

SlenderMan

Invested

$549.68

Value

$561.63

PnL

+$17.92

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

fastviking

Invested

$208.54

Value

$268.53

PnL

+$59.99

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.96

Value

$70.48

PnL

+$39.53

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

MEPP<$100

Invested

$36.48

Value

$62.34

PnL

+$26.2

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.72

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$56.55

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.5

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$73.05

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$0.5

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.99

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$13.77

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.52

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.