Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
9
No 67%
$3.8K
$547.87
78¢ → 93¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FA fastviking | Noavg 78¢ | $2.3K | $2.8K | +$450 | 69% 33-15 (48) |
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $243.94 | $304.92 | +$60.98 | 88% 212-28 (240) |
 DumplingBMF | Noavg 75.1¢ | $240.11 | $301.76 | +$61.65 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
SL SlenderMan | Noavg 92¢ | $130.3 | $131.72 | +$1.42 | 72% 257-102 (359) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $120.17 | $124.79 | +$4.62 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
CR Crock95CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $96 | $51.69 | -$44.31 | 57% 255-194 (449) |
 How.Dare.You<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $30.4 | $36.71 | +$6.32 | 72% 815-323 (1138) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $18.6 | +$0.2 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $7 | $14 | +$7 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
Invested
$2,339.98
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$450
Record
69%
33-15 (48)
Invested
$243.94
Value
$304.92
PnL
+$60.98
Record
88%
212-28 (240)
DumplingBMFInvested
$240.11
Value
$301.76
PnL
+$61.65
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$130.3
Value
$131.72
PnL
+$1.42
Record
72%
257-102 (359)
NadmiCTRInvested
$120.17
Value
$124.79
PnL
+$4.62
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$96
Value
$51.69
PnL
-$44.31
Record
57%
255-194 (449)
How.Dare.You<$100Invested
$30.4
Value
$36.71
PnL
+$6.32
Record
72%
815-323 (1138)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$18.4
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$7
Value
$14
PnL
+$7
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.