Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 30 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
30 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $41K held · ends Mar 31, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
30
Yes 100%
$41.1K
$5.5K
0.5¢ → 0.1¢
-89% since entry · 26 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
30 of 30 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)30 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
30 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Late
110h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $46.08 | $12.7K | -$423.17 | 31% 3260-7122 (10382) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yes | $6.8K | $6.8K | -$226.61 | 67% 27520-13840 (41360) |
PI PiEDawgCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $4.88 | $4.1K | +$4.1K | 35% 1832-3405 (5237) |
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $2.15 | $3.3K | -$110.41 | 37% 4041-6779 (10820) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.32 | $3.3K | -$110.42 | 17% 1340-6557 (7897) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.98 | $2.4K | -$79.32 | 23% 1795-6040 (7835) |
GO god83743894CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $2.2K | -$75.04 | 43% 10617-14085 (24702) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $1.1K | -$36.38 | 49% 6566-6933 (13499) |
LP lpgbCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.51 | $907.81 | +$907.29 | 26% 590-1655 (2245) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $14.47 | $825 | +$810.53 | 17% 106-504 (610) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.59 | $765 | +$763.41 | 54% 12513-10832 (23345) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR | Yes | $529.34 | $529.34 | -$17.72 | 39% 5769-9164 (14933) |
KL klli27CTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.74 | $465.57 | -$15.57 | 30% 491-1165 (1656) |
ME merodCTR | Yes | $409.07 | $409.07 | -$13.7 | 34% 3328-6351 (9679) |
KO korda77CTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.06 | $340 | +$339.93 | 38% 7165-11790 (18955) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.54 | $311.8 | -$10.44 | 40% 1575-2383 (3958) |
LI LikaseentCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $234.67 | -$7.86 | 30% 366-857 (1223) |
AN anothercoinCTR | Yes | $153.7 | $153.7 | -$5.15 | 42% 872-1189 (2061) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.45 | $104.45 | -$1.29 | 39% 2903-4500 (7403) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $87.5 | -$2.93 | 18% 245-1134 (1379) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.05 | $65 | -$2.18 | 31% 509-1156 (1665) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.08 | $40 | -$1.34 | 30% 466-1107 (1573) |
MK MKSafeCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $114.67 | $3.33 | -$111.35 | 28% 11-28 (39) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $77.73 | $2.25 | -$75.48 | 21% 359-1343 (1702) |
GE gesstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $72.41 | $2.1 | -$70.31 | 52% 197-185 (382) |
Invested
$46.08
Value
$12.7K
PnL
-$423.17
Record
31%
3260-7122 (10382)
Invested
$6,774.48
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$226.61
Record
67%
27520-13840 (41360)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
35%
1832-3405 (5237)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$110.41
Record
37%
4041-6779 (10820)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$110.42
Record
17%
1340-6557 (7897)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$79.32
Record
23%
1795-6040 (7835)
Invested
$0
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$75.04
Record
43%
10617-14085 (24702)
Invested
$0
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$36.38
Record
49%
6566-6933 (13499)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$907.81
PnL
+$907.29
Record
26%
590-1655 (2245)
Invested
$14.47
Value
$825
PnL
+$810.53
Record
17%
106-504 (610)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$765
PnL
+$763.41
Record
54%
12513-10832 (23345)
Invested
$529.34
Value
$529.34
PnL
-$17.72
Record
39%
5769-9164 (14933)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$465.57
PnL
-$15.57
Record
30%
491-1165 (1656)
Invested
$409.07
Value
$409.07
PnL
-$13.7
Record
34%
3328-6351 (9679)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$340
PnL
+$339.93
Record
38%
7165-11790 (18955)
probabilityCTRInvested
$0.54
Value
$311.8
PnL
-$10.44
Record
40%
1575-2383 (3958)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$234.67
PnL
-$7.86
Record
30%
366-857 (1223)
Invested
$153.7
Value
$153.7
PnL
-$5.15
Record
42%
872-1189 (2061)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$104.45
PnL
-$1.29
Record
39%
2903-4500 (7403)
Invested
$0
Value
$87.5
PnL
-$2.93
Record
18%
245-1134 (1379)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$65
PnL
-$2.18
Record
31%
509-1156 (1665)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$40
PnL
-$1.34
Record
30%
466-1107 (1573)
Invested
$114.67
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$111.35
Record
28%
11-28 (39)
Invested
$77.73
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$75.48
Record
21%
359-1343 (1702)
Invested
$72.41
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$70.31
Record
52%
197-185 (382)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bigggggggg
CTRYes — $12.7K
e46m3
CTRYes — $6.8K
PiEDawg
CTRYes — $4.1K
alex20011
CTRYes — $3.3K
WarriorH
CTRYes — $3.3K
0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F
CTRYes — $2.4K
god83743894
CTRYes — $2.2K
VictorLudorum
CTRYes — $1.1K
lpgb
CTRYes — $907.81
forgotmydinner
CTRYes — $825