Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 16 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$386.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares13,425

Combined PnL-$386.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Yes	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$145.53	35% 1146-2091 (3237)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$14.6	$1.0K	-$62.38	26% 590-1655 (2245)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$716.63	-$31.91	72% 13881-5445 (19326)
AL alex20011CTR	Yes	$475.35	$475.35	-$28.33	37% 4041-6779 (10820)
GR graynotebook19CTR	Yes	$453.56	$453.56	-$27.02	58% 15816-11500 (27316)
FO fourcoin15mCTR	Yes	$375.6	$375.6	-$22.39	39% 5769-9164 (14933)
LI LikaseentCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$265.01	-$15.8	30% 366-857 (1223)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$12.46	$256.67	-$12.2	31% 3260-7122 (10382)
KA kaxel78CTR	Yes	$125	$125	-$7.45	30% 466-1107 (1573)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$94.19	-$5.61	30% 491-1165 (1656)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yes	$90.8	$90.8	-$5.41	31% 509-1156 (1665)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$87.8	-$5.23	36% 594-1079 (1673)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yes	$63.04	$63.04	-$3.76	35% 1832-3405 (5237)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$35.8	-$2.13	30% 499-1142 (1641)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$9.94	$0.16	-$9.78	21% 359-1343 (1702)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.26	$0.02	-$1.24	55% 3178-2635 (5813)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,441.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$145.53

Record

35%

1146-2091 (3237)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$14.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$62.38

Record

26%

590-1655 (2245)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$716.63

PnL

-$31.91

Record

72%

13881-5445 (19326)

alex20011CTR

Yes

Invested

$475.35

Value

$475.35

PnL

-$28.33

Record

37%

4041-6779 (10820)

graynotebook19CTR

Yes

Invested

$453.56

Value

$453.56

PnL

-$27.02

Record

58%

15816-11500 (27316)

fourcoin15mCTR

Yes

Invested

$375.6

Value

$375.6

PnL

-$22.39

Record

39%

5769-9164 (14933)

LikaseentCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$265.01

PnL

-$15.8

Record

30%

366-857 (1223)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.46

Value

$256.67

PnL

-$12.2

Record

31%

3260-7122 (10382)

kaxel78CTR

Yes

Invested

$125

Value

$125

PnL

-$7.45

Record

30%

466-1107 (1573)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$94.19

PnL

-$5.61

Record

30%

491-1165 (1656)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.8

Value

$90.8

PnL

-$5.41

Record

31%

509-1156 (1665)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$87.8

PnL

-$5.23

Record

36%

594-1079 (1673)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.04

Value

$63.04

PnL

-$3.76

Record

35%

1832-3405 (5237)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$35.8

PnL

-$2.13

Record

30%

499-1142 (1641)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.94

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$9.78

Record

21%

359-1343 (1702)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.24

Record

55%

3178-2635 (5813)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.