Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 16 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$359.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares12,518

Combined PnL-$359.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Yes	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$145.53	35% 1149-2095 (3244)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$14.67	$1.0K	-$62.38	27% 610-1667 (2277)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$716.63	-$31.91	71% 13951-5591 (19542)
FO fourcoin15mCTR	Yes	$375.6	$375.6	-$22.39	39% 5792-9168 (14960)
VA Vale54holiCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0.21	$310.86	-$18.53	30% 353-813 (1166)
LI LikaseentCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$265.01	-$15.8	30% 370-858 (1228)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$12.46	$256.67	-$12.2	31% 3287-7149 (10436)
AL alex20011CTR	Yes	$218.96	$218.96	-$13.05	37% 4059-6782 (10841)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR	Yes	$164.01	$164.01	-$9.78	22% 369-1344 (1713)
KL klli27CTR	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$143.56	-$8.56	30% 502-1168 (1670)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yes	$90.8	$90.8	-$5.41	31% 519-1157 (1676)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yes	$83.33	$83.33	-$4.97	30% 475-1117 (1592)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$81.44	-$4.85	36% 600-1081 (1681)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yes	$23.04	$23.04	-$1.37	35% 1841-3407 (5248)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.06	$20	-$1.19	31% 510-1143 (1653)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.26	$0.02	-$1.24	55% 3185-2637 (5822)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,441.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$145.53

Record

35%

1149-2095 (3244)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$14.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$62.38

Record

27%

610-1667 (2277)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$716.63

PnL

-$31.91

Record

71%

13951-5591 (19542)

fourcoin15mCTR

Yes

Invested

$375.6

Value

$375.6

PnL

-$22.39

Record

39%

5792-9168 (14960)

Vale54holiCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$310.86

PnL

-$18.53

Record

30%

353-813 (1166)

LikaseentCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$265.01

PnL

-$15.8

Record

30%

370-858 (1228)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.46

Value

$256.67

PnL

-$12.2

Record

31%

3287-7149 (10436)

alex20011CTR

Yes

Invested

$218.96

Value

$218.96

PnL

-$13.05

Record

37%

4059-6782 (10841)

VerilyWinninglyCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.01

Value

$164.01

PnL

-$9.78

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

klli27CTR

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$143.56

PnL

-$8.56

Record

30%

502-1168 (1670)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.8

Value

$90.8

PnL

-$5.41

Record

31%

519-1157 (1676)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.33

Value

$83.33

PnL

-$4.97

Record

30%

475-1117 (1592)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$81.44

PnL

-$4.85

Record

36%

600-1081 (1681)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.04

Value

$23.04

PnL

-$1.37

Record

35%

1841-3407 (5248)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.19

Record

31%

510-1143 (1653)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.24

Record

55%

3185-2637 (5822)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 16 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

100h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.