Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$16.84

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 34.5¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$815.49

Total Shares2,114

Combined PnL-$18.19

Over5 traders

Total Value$137.96

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$1.35

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 40¢	$538.5	$518.93	-$19.57	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 38¢	$274	$276	+$1	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$152	$152	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$122	$124	+$1
fyrskenCTR	Underavg 39¢	$195	$195	-$0	49% 290-305 (595)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$80.71	$81.8	+$1.09	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 61¢	$49.55	$49.55	+$0.41	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 60¢	$43.45	$44.04	+$0.91	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 62¢	$22.94	$23.13	+$0.18	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 62¢	$19.96	$19.8	-$0.16	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$11.69	$11.83	+$0.15	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$7.79	$7.93	+$0.14	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 59¢	$1.44	$1.45	+$0.01	61% 13793-8671 (22464)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$538.5

Value

$518.93

PnL

-$19.57

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$274

Value

$276

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

Both legs:

Invested

$195

Value

$195

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$80.71

Value

$81.8

PnL

+$1.09

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$49.55

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$43.45

Value

$44.04

PnL

+$0.91

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$22.94

Value

$23.13

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.83

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.