Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$2.22
56.6¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 54.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$27.85 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.3¢ | $809.87 | $849.87 | +$40.01 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $546.63 | $534.46 | -$12.16 | |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 57¢ | $402.99 | $402.99 | +$0 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 fyrskenCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $220 | $215 | -$5 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56¢ | $296.66 | $143.75 | +$1.04 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $72.17 | $73.5 | +$1.33 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 45.8¢ | $59.96 | $59.6 | +$0.69 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.8¢ | $31.88 | $29.96 | -$0.87 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $28.08 | $29.64 | +$1.56 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $11.4 | +$0.6 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.3¢ | $6.65 | $6.45 | -$0.2 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $0.73 | +$0.01 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
Invested
$1,356.49
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$27.85
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Both legs:
Invested
$402.99
Value
$402.99
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$220
Value
$215
PnL
-$5
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
VeryLucky888Invested
$296.66
Value
$143.75
PnL
+$1.04
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$72.17
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$1.33
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$59.96
Value
$59.6
PnL
+$0.69
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.73
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.