Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $10 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$10.27

Combined PnL

-$262.08

Smart Money Entry

4.8¢ → 0.2¢

-96% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.27

Total Shares5,248

Combined PnL-$262.08

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+90 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

704h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$15.81	$2.6	-$13.22	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$85.47	$2.56	-$82.9	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$68.04	$2.08	-$65.96	35% 16955-31322 (48277)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$566.15	$0.97	-$40.51	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$31.5	$0.94	-$30.55	54% 114-96 (210)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$15.2	$0.46	-$14.74	25% 181-542 (723)
88 881112CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.45	$0.22	-$0.22	37% 568-948 (1516)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$7.47	$0.22	-$7.24	17% 221-1066 (1287)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$6.93	$0.21	-$6.73	30% 2189-5039 (7228)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.81

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$13.22

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.47

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$82.9

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.04

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$65.96

Record

35%

16955-31322 (48277)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$566.15

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$40.51

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.5

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$30.55

Record

54%

114-96 (210)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.2

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$14.74

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

881112CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

37%

568-948 (1516)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.47

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$7.24

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.93

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.73

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+90 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

704h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8233.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

8333.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.