Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $14 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$13.54

Combined PnL

-$229.51

Smart Money Entry

2.9¢ → 0.1¢

-95% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$12.69

Total Shares8,457

Combined PnL-$229.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+91 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4847h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$147.71	$6.65	-$141.06	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$981.16	$1.47	-$31.23	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.4	$1.2	-$1.2	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$25.43	$1.14	-$24.28	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$23.66	$1.07	-$22.59	60% 7180-4743 (11923)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.79	$0.75	-$3.04	68% 2076-965 (3041)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.76	$0.15	-$0.61	43% 370-481 (851)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.54	$0.11	-$2.43	63% 5411-3152 (8563)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.45	$0.11	-$2.34	54% 114-96 (210)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.77	$0.03	-$0.73	56% 3737-2986 (6723)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.71

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$141.06

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$981.16

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$31.23

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.43

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$24.28

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.66

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$22.59

Record

60%

7180-4743 (11923)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$3.04

Record

68%

2076-965 (3041)

fireponbabylonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.61

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$2.43

Record

63%

5411-3152 (8563)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$2.34

Record

54%

114-96 (210)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.73

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+91 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4847h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8595.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

8695.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.