Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$734.21

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 99.7¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,491

Combined PnL+$272.74

No6 traders

Total Value$51.46

Total Shares17,152

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

207 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4751346	Yesavg 86.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$122.68	72% 1257-483 (1740)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 96¢	$989.69	$1.0K	+$38.24	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
probability	Yesavg 93.8¢	$706.88	$733.03	+$26.15	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Yesavg 67.5¢	$146.83	$183.16	+$36.33	60% 1348-884 (2232)
TheKinginYellow	Yesavg 73¢	$127.71	$174.43	+$46.71	68% 830-398 (1228)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 1.2¢	$154.37	$41.87	-$112.5	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
NooseracCTR	Noavg 14¢	$232.3	$4.98	-$227.32	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$0	$2.62	+$2.62	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
JE Jest55CTR	Noavg 54.3¢	$397.43	$2.2	-$395.22	75% 1028-338 (1366)
LE leegunnerCTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$673.17	$1.8	-$146.91	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TT tttt123CTR	Noavg 62.5¢	$124.97	$0.6	-$124.37	72% 1535-585 (2120)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$0.64	$0.01	-$0.63	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$1,236.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$122.68

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$989.69

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$38.24

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

probability

Yes

Invested

$706.88

Value

$733.03

PnL

+$26.15

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Yes

Invested

$146.83

Value

$183.16

PnL

+$36.33

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

TheKinginYellow

Yes

Invested

$127.71

Value

$174.43

PnL

+$46.71

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$154.37

Value

$41.87

PnL

-$112.5

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

NooseracCTR

Invested

$232.3

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$227.32

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$2.62

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Jest55CTR

Invested

$397.43

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$395.22

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

leegunnerCTR

Invested

$673.17

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$146.91

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

tttt123CTR

Invested

$124.97

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$124.37

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

ratedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

207 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.