Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 56¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 1

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares42,348

Combined PnL-$740.76

Over12 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares41,731

Combined PnL-$716.88

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Underavg 55¢	$22.0K	$21.2K	-$799.76	40% 94-142 (236)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.6¢	$16.2K	$16.1K	-$575.37	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$12.5K	$12.1K	$-1.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$3.7K	$4.0K	+$485.79
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$337.92	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$251.92	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$22.5	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
StudyPredictionCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$100	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$40	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$55.43	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$39.32	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$691.66	$721.34	+$29.68	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46¢	$675.51	$653.55	-$21.96	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$266.57	$257.46	-$9.11	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$106.4	$105.28	-$4.48	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 48¢	$68.63	$75.78	+$3.57	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$51.61	$52.17	+$0.56	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$8.35	$7.83	+$0.09	53% 5696-5031 (10727)

EdZachary

Under

Invested

$21,993.43

Value

$21.2K

PnL

-$799.76

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$16,182.5

Value

$16.1K

PnL

-$575.37

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$12,519.648.6¢$-1.1K

Under$3,662.949¢+$485.79

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$5,252.95

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$337.92

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,139.2

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$251.92

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,397.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

StudyPredictionCTR

Over

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$1,840

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$40

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,175.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$55.43

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,336.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39.32

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$691.66

Value

$721.34

PnL

+$29.68

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$675.51

Value

$653.55

PnL

-$21.96

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$266.57

Value

$257.46

PnL

-$9.11

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$106.4

Value

$105.28

PnL

-$4.48

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$68.63

Value

$75.78

PnL

+$3.57

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.61

Value

$52.17

PnL

+$0.56

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.35

Value

$7.83

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.