Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 99¢ · $84K held · ends Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$83.9K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 99.1¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$83.8K

Total Shares84,697

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No1 trader

Total Value$165.01

Total Shares11,000

Combined PnL-$257.51

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Yesavg 95.5¢	$21.7K	$22.2K	+$725.16	58% 844-614 (1458)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Yesavg 95.5¢	$16.2K	$16.0K	+$549.8	63% 166-99 (265)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 98.2¢	$13.4K	$13.5K	+$96.62	78% 342-99 (441)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 96.3¢	$12.7K	$13.1K	+$360.64	76% 318-102 (420)
scout	Yesavg 93¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$204.57	90% 762-81 (843)
65 65765757	Yesavg 97.2¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$68.63	79% 277-74 (351)
MI MissaoComFlavio	Yesavg 97.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$41.61	75% 234-77 (311)
paddaa	Yesavg 91.3¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$176.13	56% 836-645 (1481)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 95.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$51	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
BR browne	Yesavg 96.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$42.06	71% 173-70 (243)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 90.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$103.12	50% 147-145 (292)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 95¢	$724.08	$742.9	+$18.82	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 3.6¢	$325	$165.01	-$257.51	— 2-12 (14)

classified

Yes

Invested

$21,671.04

Value

$22.2K

PnL

+$725.16

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Yes

Invested

$16,152.64

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$549.8

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$13,425

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$96.62

Record

78%

342-99 (441)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$12,714.55

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$360.64

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

scout

Yes

Invested

$3,763.08

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$204.57

Record

90%

762-81 (843)

65765757

Yes

Invested

$3,446

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$68.63

Record

79%

277-74 (351)

MissaoComFlavio

Yes

Invested

$2,974

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$41.61

Record

75%

234-77 (311)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$2,191.4

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$176.13

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,937.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$51

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

browne

Yes

Invested

$1,935.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$42.06

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$1,241.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$103.12

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$724.08

Value

$742.9

PnL

+$18.82

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$325

Value

$165.01

PnL

-$257.51

Record

—

2-12 (14)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.