US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (68%) · Yes at 98¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 3

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 68%

Total Value

$57.9K

Combined PnL

-$618.99

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 97.5¢

+14% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$55.9K

Total Shares57,185

Combined PnL+$5.7K

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares76,482

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Yes — 68%No — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Yesavg 85.5¢	$32.6K	$35.9K	+$3.3K	58% 844-614 (1458)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 88.6¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$532.13	89% 4653-547 (5200)
MEPP	Yesavg 82.5¢	$4.3K	$5.0K	+$767.83	64% 633-352 (985)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022	Yesavg 91.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$119.09	73% 160-59 (219)
TR troim	Yesavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$748	36% 397-691 (1088)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 92.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$64.01	82% 1758-394 (2152)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 6.9¢	$3.6K	$1.4K	$-2.2K	47% 476-535 (1011)
tetrase	Yesavg 94¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$39.01	61% 839-544 (1383)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 91.3¢	$819	$869.34	+$47.2	76% 318-102 (420)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 92.5¢	$621.88	$651.62	+$29.74	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
clazzy1	Yesavg 81¢	$421.39	$503.87	+$85.08	62% 413-249 (662)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 39¢	$3.1K	$240	$-3.1K	— 2-12 (14)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 10.5¢	$530.61	$134.59	-$396.03	38% 567-944 (1511)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$495.57	$123.58	-$372	38% 20-32 (52)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 96.5¢	$57.89	$58.13	+$0.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 93.7¢	$55.38	$57.89	+$2.51	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Noavg 5.4¢	$59.5	$48	-$21.98	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
PorxCTR	Noavg 21.5¢	$244.16	$27.28	-$208.35	66% 1482-769 (2251)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Yesavg 72.4¢	$0.76	$1.07	+$0.31	50% 147-145 (292)

classified

Yes

Invested

$32,602.55

Value

$35.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$5,971.37

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$532.13

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$4,262.89

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$767.83

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022

Yes

Invested

$2,203.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$119.09

Record

73%

160-59 (219)

troim

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$748

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$1,413.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$64.01

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$3,608.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

tetrase

Yes

Invested

$1,068.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$39.01

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$819

Value

$869.34

PnL

+$47.2

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$621.88

Value

$651.62

PnL

+$29.74

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$421.39

Value

$503.87

PnL

+$85.08

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$3,051.2

Value

$240

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

—

2-12 (14)

881112CTR

Invested

$530.61

Value

$134.59

PnL

-$396.03

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$495.57

Value

$123.58

PnL

-$372

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.89

Value

$58.13

PnL

+$0.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.38

Value

$57.89

PnL

+$2.51

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Invested

$59.5

Value

$48

PnL

-$21.98

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

PorxCTR

Invested

$244.16

Value

$27.28

PnL

-$208.35

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.