Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 99¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

Total Value

$100.6K

Combined PnL

$942.62

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 98.6¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$99.9K

Total Shares101,225

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No3 traders

Total Value$760.95

Total Shares54,940

Combined PnL-$724.18

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 97.3¢	$53.5K	$54.3K	+$771.97	76% 318-102 (420)
MI MissaoComFlavio	Yesavg 98.6¢	$19.8K	$19.8K	+$2.09	75% 234-77 (311)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 96.9¢	$12.8K	$13.0K	+$222.75	78% 342-99 (441)
MEPP	Yesavg 91.8¢	$6.8K	$7.3K	+$494.27	64% 633-352 (985)
StarMaster	Yesavg 97¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$6.43	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 93.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$30.5	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
65 65765757	Yesavg 91.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$72.47	79% 277-74 (351)
classifiedCTR	Noavg 2.4¢	$1.1K	$654.23	-$463.49	58% 844-614 (1458)
paddaa	Yesavg 88.1¢	$438.91	$492.46	+$53.55	56% 836-645 (1481)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 92.1¢	$280.11	$292.63	+$12.52	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 3¢	$90	$89.19	-$131.58	— 2-12 (14)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$19.5	$19.75	+$0.25	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$146.65	$17.54	-$129.11	50% 147-145 (292)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$53,516.32

Value

$54.3K

PnL

+$771.97

Record

76%

318-102 (420)

MissaoComFlavio

Yes

Invested

$19,768.8

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$2.09

Record

75%

234-77 (311)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$12,786.71

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$222.75

Record

78%

342-99 (441)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$6,815.21

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$494.27

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,969.02

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$6.43

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$1,549.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30.5

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

65765757

Yes

Invested

$1,045

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$72.47

Record

79%

277-74 (351)

classifiedCTR

Invested

$1,117.72

Value

$654.23

PnL

-$463.49

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$438.91

Value

$492.46

PnL

+$53.55

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$280.11

Value

$292.63

PnL

+$12.52

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$90

Value

$89.19

PnL

-$131.58

Record

—

2-12 (14)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Invested

$146.65

Value

$17.54

PnL

-$129.11

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.