US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 92¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 5

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

-$542.29

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 91.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$31.9K

Total Shares33,983

Combined PnL+$3.1K

No7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares25,964

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Yesavg 83.2¢	$26.4K	$21.7K	+$2.0K	58% 844-614 (1458)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 76.7¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$509.49	89% 4653-547 (5200)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 86¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$237.27	20% 108-423 (531)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 12.8¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$669.66	38% 20-32 (52)
MEPP	Yesavg 74.8¢	$946.83	$1.2K	+$212.1	64% 633-352 (985)
StarMaster	Yesavg 85¢	$850	$910	+$35	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 24.5¢	$244	$629.97	$-2.6K	— 2-12 (14)
GonTanaka	Yesavg 84.5¢	$179.98	$193.83	+$14.92	57% 173-128 (301)
88 881112CTR	Noavg 14.9¢	$238.22	$173.15	-$65.06	38% 567-944 (1511)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.9K	$98.2	-$152.86	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ No leg	Noavg 16¢	$108.63	$57.88	-$156.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 86.9¢	$38.3	$40.33	+$3.48
PorxCTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$256.98	$84.02	-$168.29	66% 1482-769 (2251)
MA mamboNB5<$100	Yes	$45.5	$45.5	+$16.52	64% 221-122 (343)
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 55.4¢	$139.75	$22.5	-$117.25	62% 413-249 (662)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$25	$18	-$7	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$10	$2.5	-$7.5	69% 156-69 (225)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Yesavg 70.5¢	$1.85	$2	+$0.15	50% 147-145 (292)

classified

Yes

Invested

$26,436.91

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$3,315.51

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$509.49

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$3,710.07

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$237.27

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$2,043.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$669.66

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$946.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$212.1

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$850

Value

$910

PnL

+$35

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$244

Value

$629.97

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

—

2-12 (14)

GonTanaka

Yes

Invested

$179.98

Value

$193.83

PnL

+$14.92

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

881112CTR

Invested

$238.22

Value

$173.15

PnL

-$65.06

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

lissartterARB<$100

Invested

$1,928.4

Value

$98.2

PnL

-$152.86

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

No$108.6316¢-$156.34

Yes$38.386.9¢+$3.48

PorxCTR

Invested

$256.98

Value

$84.02

PnL

-$168.29

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

mamboNB5<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.5

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$16.52

Record

64%

221-122 (343)

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$139.75

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$117.25

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$18

PnL

-$7

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.