Consensus PnL $282K · win rate 54% (14–12, n=26) · PM monthly #94 · holds 57 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$282.5K
Record
14W / 12L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
37.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1010
Source
PM monthly #94
Record (90 d)
10/14 · 71%
Trades
10,257
Markets
87
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
57 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 57 on the consensus side (72%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $201K · now 82¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No $120K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (57% of 37)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No $109K · now 93¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (15% of 41)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $106K · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (11% of 44)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $76K · now 99¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (68% of 79)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $75K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $73K · now 83¢ · in at 86¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $64K · now 46¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (84% of 62)
Specialties
15 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 46¢- Elections
+42 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 20% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.