Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 23 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

23 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$45.0K

Combined PnL

$11.8K

Smart Money Entry

3¢ → 4¢

+35% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

23 of 25 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes23 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares1,040,827

Combined PnL+$11.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,002

Combined PnL-$14.5

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+81 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$13.8K	$19.3K	+$5.6K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$9.1K	$12.3K	+$3.1K	51% 901-875 (1776)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Noavg 95.4¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$14.5	60% 1348-884 (2232)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.4K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CarCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$103.87	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
siickCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$140.16	57% 767-580 (1347)
GayPrideCTR	Yes	$906.76	$906.76	+$689.86	49% 357-367 (724)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$782.11	$782.11	+$631.43	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$1.1K	$757.35	-$302.3	60% 474-313 (787)
RD rdbaCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$468.55	$666.35	+$197.8	60% 131-88 (219)
GUHHHCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$644.08	$632.9	-$11.19	78% 879-250 (1129)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$360	$405	+$45	71% 318-130 (448)
ME melganisCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$296	$243	-$52.98	75% 1597-541 (2138)
CR Crock95CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$177.04	$188.69	+$11.65	57% 255-194 (449)
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$144.98	$162.34	+$17.36	77% 1408-416 (1824)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$150.3	+$125.53	26% 351-985 (1336)
BA badatthisCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$123	$121.5	-$1.5	65% 2235-1184 (3419)
XieGuangKunCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$46.89	$86.58	+$39.69	51% 367-349 (716)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$8.26	$52.21	+$43.95	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$31.9	$40.5	+$8.6	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
mountaindewdCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$31.99	$40.49	+$8.5	54% 344-290 (634)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$18.5	$20.25	+$1.75	71% 968-396 (1364)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$11.6	$16.2	+$4.6	72% 1257-483 (1740)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$11.87	$11.87	+$9.58	7% 14-187 (201)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$1.99	$1.99	+$0	69% 156-69 (225)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,773.04

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,112.31

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Invested

$2,893.01

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$14.5

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,491.9

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,130.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$103.87

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,042.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$140.16

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$906.76

Value

$906.76

PnL

+$689.86

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$782.11

Value

$782.11

PnL

+$631.43

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,060

Value

$757.35

PnL

-$302.3

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

rdbaCTR

Yes

Invested

$468.55

Value

$666.35

PnL

+$197.8

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

GUHHHCTR

Yes

Invested

$644.08

Value

$632.9

PnL

-$11.19

Record

78%

879-250 (1129)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$405

PnL

+$45

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

melganisCTR

Yes

Invested

$296

Value

$243

PnL

-$52.98

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Crock95CTR

Yes

Invested

$177.04

Value

$188.69

PnL

+$11.65

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$144.98

Value

$162.34

PnL

+$17.36

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$150.3

PnL

+$125.53

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

badatthisCTR

Yes

Invested

$123

Value

$121.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

2235-1184 (3419)

XieGuangKunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.89

Value

$86.58

PnL

+$39.69

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.26

Value

$52.21

PnL

+$43.95

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.9

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$8.6

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

mountaindewdCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.99

Value

$40.49

PnL

+$8.5

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.5

Value

$20.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.6

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$4.6

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$9.58

Record

14-187 (201)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

23 of 25 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+81 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

36 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1807.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

1907.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.