Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will APO Levadiakos FC win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 14¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 64%
$1.0K
-$319.8
64.2¢ → 13.5¢
-79% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 74¢ | $510.49 | $517.13 | +$10.09 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
SP spyGoodLuck77 | Yesavg 60.7¢ | $100.5 | $118.44 | +$17.94 | 63% 1792-1071 (2863) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $74.53 | $75.7 | +$1.17 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 65.2¢ | $332.07 | $71.28 | -$260.79 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $65.2 | $70.85 | +$5.65 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $61.99 | $63.26 | +$0 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $41.44 | $42 | +$0.84 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $85.34 | $36.5 | -$48.85 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 57.1¢ | $54.64 | $18.66 | -$35.98 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $13.41 | $3.59 | -$9.82 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.7 | -$0.05 | 54% 6427-5413 (11840) |
Invested
$510.49
Value
$517.13
PnL
+$10.09
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$100.5
Value
$118.44
PnL
+$17.94
Record
63%
1792-1071 (2863)
Invested
$74.53
Value
$75.7
PnL
+$1.17
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$332.07
Value
$71.28
PnL
-$260.79
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1<$100Invested
$65.2
Value
$70.85
PnL
+$5.65
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$61.99
Value
$63.26
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
Invested
$41.44
Value
$42
PnL
+$0.84
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$85.34
Value
$36.5
PnL
-$48.85
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$54.64
Value
$18.66
PnL
-$35.98
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.41
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$9.82
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6427-5413 (11840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.