Kash Patel out by December 31?

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 82¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 82¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares20,179

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares20,329

Combined PnL$-9.2K

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Diverging

sharpYes 64% · 11

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 15

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yen4u	Noavg 73.6¢	$11.0K	$12.8K	+$1.3K	86% 809-136 (945)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 72¢	$6.0K	$1.5K	$-4.5K	82% 945-201 (1146)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 74.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$116.75	63% 166-99 (265)
Gohst	Noavg 36.7¢	$497.89	$1.2K	+$606.34	49% 738-770 (1508)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 56.8¢	$2.5K	$783.22	$-1.7K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
ME melganis	Noavg 24.9¢	$170.34	$588.24	+$393.96	75% 1597-541 (2138)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 74¢	$518	$546.8	+$50.86	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 36.8¢	$291.33	$474.05	+$358.49	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 62.9¢	$286.39	$391.85	+$84.96	89% 4653-547 (5200)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$573.16	$228.03	-$345.13	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
CarCTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$466.8	$220.33	-$252.42	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
SeutervoinenCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$550	$185	-$370	85% 312-57 (369)
touristsCTR	Yesavg 59.6¢	$534.05	$165.69	-$368.36	66% 427-222 (649)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 77.4¢	$542.5	$129.5	-$413	61% 839-544 (1383)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 61.4¢	$377.55	$113.8	-$266.82	69% 987-450 (1437)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 62.9¢	$315.57	$106.27	-$209.3	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 71¢	$355	$92.5	-$272.5	72% 1052-415 (1467)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 77.3¢	$332.88	$81.12	-$251.76	76% 291-93 (384)
RO rocky42019CTR	Yesavg 58.9¢	$75.24	$55.97	-$19.26	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 77.4¢	$227.46	$54.3	-$173.16	71% 318-130 (448)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$16.29	$22.75	-$66.16	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
Optimus-<$100	Noavg 17¢	$2.05	$10.36	+$7.83	61% 1200-768 (1968)

yen4u

Invested

$10,995.66

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,989.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$1,126.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$116.75

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

Gohst

Invested

$497.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$606.34

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,469.69

Value

$783.22

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

melganis

Invested

$170.34

Value

$588.24

PnL

+$393.96

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$518

Value

$546.8

PnL

+$50.86

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$291.33

Value

$474.05

PnL

+$358.49

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

nonkenny90

Invested

$286.39

Value

$391.85

PnL

+$84.96

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$573.16

Value

$228.03

PnL

-$345.13

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$466.8

Value

$220.33

PnL

-$252.42

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

SeutervoinenCTR

Yes

Invested

$550

Value

$185

PnL

-$370

Record

85%

312-57 (369)

touristsCTR

Yes

Invested

$534.05

Value

$165.69

PnL

-$368.36

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$542.5

Value

$129.5

PnL

-$413

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$377.55

Value

$113.8

PnL

-$266.82

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$315.57

Value

$106.27

PnL

-$209.3

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$355

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$272.5

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$332.88

Value

$81.12

PnL

-$251.76

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

rocky42019CTR

Yes

Invested

$75.24

Value

$55.97

PnL

-$19.26

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$227.46

Value

$54.3

PnL

-$173.16

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.29

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$66.16

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

Optimus-<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$7.83

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Diverging

sharpYes 64% · 11

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 15

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.