Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-13.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.3¢

-67% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares626,355

Combined PnL$-13.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

201 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
debasedCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	$-2.1K	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ME melganisCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.1K	$336.12	-$714.06	75% 1597-541 (2138)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$335.95	$54.17	-$281.77	61% 1200-767 (1967)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$100	$25	-$75	83% 3802-801 (4603)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$62.0K	$19.23	$-10.3K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$55	$17.92	-$43.18	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$54.54	$16.04	-$39.03	47% 83-94 (177)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$75	$12.5	-$62.5	72% 1257-483 (1740)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$8.33	+$8.33	26% 351-985 (1336)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4	$5	+$1	71% 968-396 (1364)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.1K	$3.89	-$5.58	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.91	$2.95	-$4.24	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.14	+$0.14	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,148.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

melganisCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,135.77

Value

$336.12

PnL

-$714.06

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$335.95

Value

$54.17

PnL

-$281.77

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$25

PnL

-$75

Record

83%

3802-801 (4603)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$61,981.36

Value

$19.23

PnL

$-10.3K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55

Value

$17.92

PnL

-$43.18

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.54

Value

$16.04

PnL

-$39.03

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$8.33

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,136.81

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$5.58

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$4.24

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,099.05

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

201 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.