Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 64¢ · $23K held · ends Dec 31

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$22.5K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 63.5¢

+49% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares29,088

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares10,915

Combined PnL$-3.1K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 38¢	$7.3K	$12.2K	+$4.9K	47% 476-535 (1011)
BigMackyG	Noavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.8K	+$690	20% 108-423 (531)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 76.7¢	$5.0K	$2.4K	$-2.6K	64% 633-352 (985)
eCash	Noavg 50.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$285.4	68% 331-155 (486)
LI lissartter	Noavg 51.7¢	$837.2	$952.75	+$115.55	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 55.7¢	$1.2K	$787.87	-$405.06	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 55.9¢	$730	$547.5	-$182.5	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$148.35	$182.5	+$42.95	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$82.05	$74.74	+$8.37	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$11.37	$52.09	+$40.72	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$19.18	$42.01	+$22.83	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$66.54	$41.49	-$25.05	50% 357-357 (714)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.8	$2.36	+$0.56	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$1.78	$2.3	+$0.52	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

anoin123

Invested

$7,284.21

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

BigMackyG

Invested

$3,120

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$690

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,985.36

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

eCash

Invested

$1,152.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$285.4

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

lissartter

Invested

$837.2

Value

$952.75

PnL

+$115.55

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,192.93

Value

$787.87

PnL

-$405.06

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$730

Value

$547.5

PnL

-$182.5

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.35

Value

$182.5

PnL

+$42.95

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$82.05

Value

$74.74

PnL

+$8.37

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.37

Value

$52.09

PnL

+$40.72

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$19.18

Value

$42.01

PnL

+$22.83

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.54

Value

$41.49

PnL

-$25.05

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

merod<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.56

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

korda77<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.52

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.4%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.