Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 5 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

26.9¢ → 47.5¢

+76% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,034

Combined PnL+$664.56

No12 traders

Total Value$870.98

Total Shares1,822

Combined PnL+$684.68

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

130h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$405.62	$600.59	+$194.96	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$121.03	$575.59	+$454.56	64% 424-240 (664)
balthazar	Noavg 53.7¢	$782.02	$275.98	+$290.22	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
JO JordanMooney	Noavg 33.5¢	$179.14	$224.47	+$45.32	34% 2142-4117 (6259)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$184.36	$175.8	-$8.56	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$114.07	$116.04	+$1.97
└ No leg	Noavg 49.4¢	$70.29	$59.76	-$10.53
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 58.1¢	$731.72	$152.93	-$53.4	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
The-JokerCTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$92.69	$102.96	+$10.27	68% 1582-745 (2327)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 40¢	$371.98	$94.21	+$388.94	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
GI GingerMcKennaARB<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$54.85	$48.7	-$17.72	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.5¢	$31.49	$25.8	-$6.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.8¢	$5.55	$22.9	-$11.16
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 33¢	$24.92	$40.17	+$15.25	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$75.96	$21.42	-$1.27	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$56.68	$16.24	+$0.54	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$54.51	$12.45	-$0.74	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$29.18	$12.24	+$1.08	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$64.87	$9.33	-$0.65	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$19.66	$6.75	+$0.1	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$4.56	$5.36	+$0.8	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$5.51	$4.79	-$0.72	41% 2520-3700 (6220)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$11.51	$2.83	+$3.97	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$405.62

Value

$600.59

PnL

+$194.96

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.03

Value

$575.59

PnL

+$454.56

Record

64%

424-240 (664)

balthazar

Invested

$782.02

Value

$275.98

PnL

+$290.22

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

JordanMooney

Invested

$179.14

Value

$224.47

PnL

+$45.32

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$184.36

Value

$175.8

PnL

-$8.56

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Both legs:

Yes$114.0757¢+$1.97

No$70.2949.4¢-$10.53

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$731.72

Value

$152.93

PnL

-$53.4

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

The-JokerCTR

Yes

Invested

$92.69

Value

$102.96

PnL

+$10.27

Record

68%

1582-745 (2327)

haveagoodday

Invested

$371.98

Value

$94.21

PnL

+$388.94

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

GingerMcKennaARB<$100

Invested

$54.85

Value

$48.7

PnL

-$17.72

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

Both legs:

No$31.4952.5¢-$6.56

Yes$5.5513.8¢-$11.16

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$24.92

Value

$40.17

PnL

+$15.25

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$75.96

Value

$21.42

PnL

-$1.27

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$56.68

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$54.51

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$0.74

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.18

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$1.08

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$64.87

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$0.65

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$19.66

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

123987456<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.72

Record

41%

2520-3700 (6220)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.51

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$3.97

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

130h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.