Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

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12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$399.48

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 47¢

-27% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,058

Combined PnL+$209.49

No12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,286

Combined PnL-$608.97

Yes — 8%No — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 29.1¢	$891.28	$1.5K	+$209.49	62% 367-226 (593)
NostdamCTR	Noavg 68.8¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$498.61	54% 1442-1238 (2680)
MI mildwindow27CTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$399.44	$321.48	+$72.46	47% 8058-9236 (17294)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 72.6¢	$240.07	$158.62	-$81.45	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 53.2¢	$248.57	$81.74	+$15.12	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$96.1	$63.06	-$32.69	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$82.61	$58.65	-$21.74	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$66.03	$50.76	-$15.27	72% 24759-9851 (34610)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$61	$48	-$13	68% 2724-1308 (4032)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$96.94	$36	-$12.47	62% 14548-9094 (23642)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$73.68	$30.72	-$14.52	24% 302-944 (1246)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$30.5	$24	-$6.5	29% 2268-5613 (7881)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$31.27	$14.4	-$0.3	61% 15643-9934 (25577)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$891.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$209.49

Record

62%

367-226 (593)

NostdamCTR

Invested

$1,646.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$498.61

Record

54%

1442-1238 (2680)

mildwindow27CTR

Invested

$399.44

Value

$321.48

PnL

+$72.46

Record

47%

8058-9236 (17294)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$240.07

Value

$158.62

PnL

-$81.45

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$248.57

Value

$81.74

PnL

+$15.12

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$96.1

Value

$63.06

PnL

-$32.69

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$82.61

Value

$58.65

PnL

-$21.74

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Invested

$66.03

Value

$50.76

PnL

-$15.27

Record

72%

24759-9851 (34610)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR<$100

Invested

$61

Value

$48

PnL

-$13

Record

68%

2724-1308 (4032)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$96.94

Value

$36

PnL

-$12.47

Record

62%

14548-9094 (23642)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$73.68

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$14.52

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$30.5

Value

$24

PnL

-$6.5

Record

29%

2268-5613 (7881)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$31.27

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

61%

15643-9934 (25577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.