Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 31¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 30.5¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares17,603

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,322

Combined PnL-$34.93

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

39 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$824.35	45% 112-138 (250)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$26.53	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 71.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.96	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 68.7¢	$755.74	$770	+$8.76	65% 527-282 (809)
Xeny	Noavg 69¢	$690	$700	+$5	60% 978-662 (1640)
LI lissartter	Noavg 75.2¢	$512.15	$482.93	-$29.22	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$237.98	$418.69	+$180.71	66% 1107-565 (1672)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$283.24	$390.38	+$113.65	54% 229-195 (424)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 70.6¢	$345.73	$340.47	-$5.26	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$95	$150	+$57.5	51% 527-509 (1036)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$28.66	$57.32	+$30.57	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 80¢	$41.28	$35.03	-$6.25	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$39.86	$11.86	+$11.59	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,890.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$824.35

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,536.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$26.53

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,404.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.96

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

melonmanm

Invested

$755.74

Value

$770

PnL

+$8.76

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Xeny

Invested

$690

Value

$700

PnL

+$5

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

lissartter

Invested

$512.15

Value

$482.93

PnL

-$29.22

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.98

Value

$418.69

PnL

+$180.71

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.24

Value

$390.38

PnL

+$113.65

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$345.73

Value

$340.47

PnL

-$5.26

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$95

Value

$150

PnL

+$57.5

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.66

Value

$57.32

PnL

+$30.57

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$41.28

Value

$35.03

PnL

-$6.25

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.86

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$11.59

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

39 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.4%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$208.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

309.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.