Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$629.46

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 96¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,739

Combined PnL+$658.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16.31

Total Shares408

Combined PnL-$29.38

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

3932h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE denizz	Noavg 83.9¢	$4.2K	$4.8K	+$603.5	68% 597-284 (881)
MisTKy	Noavg 87¢	$217.5	$240	+$22.63	70% 571-248 (819)
Porx	Noavg 90.9¢	$209.79	$221.43	+$11.65	66% 1486-776 (2262)
TT tttt123	Noavg 87¢	$114.02	$121.02	+$11.41	72% 1537-588 (2125)
TH thoodr	Noavg 90.6¢	$99.7	$105.6	+$5.96	96% 647-24 (671)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$38.17	$41.87	+$3.71	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$42.55	$16.13	-$29.29	41% 2003-2843 (4846)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$0.09	48% 102-110 (212)

denizz

Invested

$4,176.47

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$603.5

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

MisTKy

Invested

$217.5

Value

$240

PnL

+$22.63

Record

70%

571-248 (819)

Porx

Invested

$209.79

Value

$221.43

PnL

+$11.65

Record

66%

1486-776 (2262)

tttt123

Invested

$114.02

Value

$121.02

PnL

+$11.41

Record

72%

1537-588 (2125)

thoodr

Invested

$99.7

Value

$105.6

PnL

+$5.96

Record

96%

647-24 (671)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$38.17

Value

$41.87

PnL

+$3.71

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.55

Value

$16.13

PnL

-$29.29

Record

41%

2003-2843 (4846)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

3932h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.