Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $27K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$27.0K

Combined PnL

$439.07

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 95.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares27,469

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$739.56

Total Shares16,808

Combined PnL-$882.19

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4923h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
morito181	Noavg 89.8¢	$16.3K	$17.3K	+$1.0K	61% 847-548 (1395)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$80	96% 647-24 (671)
MEPP	Noavg 92¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$48.91	64% 636-356 (992)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$612.73	$297.57	-$311.77	42% 1087-1487 (2574)
KR Krass	Noavg 76¢	$228	$286.8	+$58.5	74% 452-155 (607)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$493.74	$286.28	-$200.95	58% 1256-892 (2148)
randomWalkingShrimp	Noavg 81.4¢	$214.92	$252.31	+$37.13	77% 1207-366 (1573)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.5K	$191.09	+$26.01	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 92.1¢	$189.88	$191.08	+$1.2	56% 15661-12308 (27969)
TT tttt123	Noavg 79.5¢	$145.97	$170.26	+$24.29	72% 1537-588 (2125)
TheKinginYellow	Noavg 83.5¢	$106.21	$121.52	+$15.32	68% 830-399 (1229)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.8¢	$102.99	$106.07	+$2.96	77% 11962-3647 (15609)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$219.09	$44.59	-$174.5	68% 2083-977 (3060)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$140	$44	-$96	36% 399-696 (1095)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$44.11	$35.94	-$8.17	67% 4183-2048 (6231)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 17.5¢	$121.98	$31.19	-$90.8	58% 934-667 (1601)

morito181

Invested

$16,301.17

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

61%

847-548 (1395)

thoodr

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$80

Record

96%

647-24 (671)

MEPP

Invested

$2,784.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$48.91

Record

64%

636-356 (992)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$612.73

Value

$297.57

PnL

-$311.77

Record

42%

1087-1487 (2574)

Krass

Invested

$228

Value

$286.8

PnL

+$58.5

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$493.74

Value

$286.28

PnL

-$200.95

Record

58%

1256-892 (2148)

randomWalkingShrimp

Invested

$214.92

Value

$252.31

PnL

+$37.13

Record

77%

1207-366 (1573)

ghorrock

Invested

$1,474.72

Value

$191.09

PnL

+$26.01

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$189.88

Value

$191.08

PnL

+$1.2

Record

56%

15661-12308 (27969)

tttt123

Invested

$145.97

Value

$170.26

PnL

+$24.29

Record

72%

1537-588 (2125)

TheKinginYellow

Invested

$106.21

Value

$121.52

PnL

+$15.32

Record

68%

830-399 (1229)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$102.99

Value

$106.07

PnL

+$2.96

Record

77%

11962-3647 (15609)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.09

Value

$44.59

PnL

-$174.5

Record

68%

2083-977 (3060)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$44

PnL

-$96

Record

36%

399-696 (1095)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.11

Value

$35.94

PnL

-$8.17

Record

67%

4183-2048 (6231)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.98

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$90.8

Record

58%

934-667 (1601)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4923h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.