Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 88¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$718.74

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 87.8¢

+33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,614

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$225.62

Total Shares1,928

Combined PnL-$494.6

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 72.8¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$407.86	73% 350-129 (479)
GollumGekko	Noavg 66.7¢	$563.23	$723.99	+$160.77	68% 2074-958 (3032)
Gohst	Noavg 31¢	$209.12	$590.25	+$382.82	49% 738-770 (1508)
siick	Noavg 75.1¢	$439.21	$511.65	+$73.9	57% 768-580 (1348)
Sardinianshepherd	Noavg 73.1¢	$310.65	$371.91	+$62.75	65% 929-506 (1435)
tetrase	Noavg 70¢	$211.76	$264.78	+$54.08	61% 839-544 (1383)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$120.7	$138.01	+$17.31	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
MEPP<$100	Noavg 12¢	$10.09	$76	+$65.91	64% 633-352 (985)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 87.2¢	$472.34	$62.23	-$398.49	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 65.9¢	$138.81	$25.38	-$113.42	57% 1114-837 (1951)
KR Krass<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$0	$5.27	+$5.27	74% 452-155 (607)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$1,970

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$407.86

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

GollumGekko

Invested

$563.23

Value

$723.99

PnL

+$160.77

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

Gohst

Invested

$209.12

Value

$590.25

PnL

+$382.82

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

siick

Invested

$439.21

Value

$511.65

PnL

+$73.9

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Sardinianshepherd

Invested

$310.65

Value

$371.91

PnL

+$62.75

Record

65%

929-506 (1435)

tetrase

Invested

$211.76

Value

$264.78

PnL

+$54.08

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.7

Value

$138.01

PnL

+$17.31

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

MEPP<$100

Invested

$10.09

Value

$76

PnL

+$65.91

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$472.34

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$398.49

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.81

Value

$25.38

PnL

-$113.42

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Krass<$100

Invested

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$5.27

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.3%

87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.